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Long-term strategies may challenge investors to stay focused. The fight against short-term thinking is getting harder as we accomplish so many things with increasing ease and speed.

There is more computing power in an iPhone than what NASA had during the first landing on the moon. Remember when Netflix mailed DVDs to your home? Now we can stream just about anything to our smartphones. And what would you have said ten years ago if I had told you the President of the United States’ main communication tool in 2018 would be Twitter?

But speed doesn’t change everything.

Books, Reading and Knowledge

“I read and read and read. I probably read 5 to 6 hours per day. I read five daily newspapers, I read a fair number of magazines, I read 10k’s, I read annual reports, and I read a lot of other things too. I’ve always enjoyed reading. That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest.”
– Warren Buffett

In other words, reading opens one’s mind to bigger and better things. Another voracious reader, Bill Gates, recently shared his picks for some good summer reading. And who wouldn’t be interested in reading what a brilliant thinker like Gates found illuminating?

Of course, the Janiczek community isn’t short on good book recommendations either. In December, our team offered up some of our favorite books of the year, and our client community responded with some great picks of their own. (One client recommendation made the current Bill Gates list … great minds think alike, right?!)

So, as you begin your summer reading, whether to learn or to simply escape, we gladly share a few of our picks. Personally, I’ll be reading one of Bill Gates’ picks, Origin Story: A Big History of Everything by David Christian.

If you have book recommendations, by all means, let me know!

Book Recommendations from the Janiczek Team

I’m not sure Yogi Berra is big source of investment knowledge for most investors. But, that doesn’t mean his words of wisdom, “déjà vu all over again,” don’t apply.

Today’s Wall Street Journal included an article titled, “Value Investors Face Existential Crisis After Long Market Rally.” It discussed the “rut” that value investing has experienced since 2009.  No arguments there. Value stocks are down about 1% year-to-date while growth stocks are up nearly 8%.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index, which holds many of the favorite tech names among growth investors, is at its all-time high.

A Familiar Scenario

But as I sipped my morning coffee and read further, I didn’t ask myself how we should change our current value approach (for the portion of our portfolios dedicated to value investing) to match the current environment.  Instead, I found myself thinking about earlier in my career, the late 1990s.  Tech ruled the day from 1995 through 1999, and value investors lagged back then too.

“The Return of Volatility.” “Volatility Is Back With A Vengeance.” These are some of the headlines recapping the first quarter of 2018. Many of them
discuss volatility and risk interchangeably, as though they were both the same … but they’re not.

Risk and volatility are different, and we intend to set the record straight. In this issue of Portfolio Matters, we cover the first quarter’s risks and volatility that was (and wasn’t) witnessed in markets, and provide investors some clarity on thinking about the two individually and separately…read more.

Lifelong learning.  It’s a core belief here at our firm, and we regularly read across a variety of topics.  I recently asked the team to share any of their favorite books from the past year, business or otherwise.  Below is what we’d offer up as our recommendations from 2017, and if you have any good book recommendations from the last year, please let us know!

Brady Siegrist

As my clients know, planning for the future eventually includes a conversation about mortality.

JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Behavioral Economics Takes Center Stage in Q3

I will be very impressed if the title of this latest edition of Portfolio Matters sounds familiar to anyone. It’s actually the title of the research paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky back in September of 1974 that brought the field of behavioral economics into the mainstream mindset we know today. (We credit writer Jason Zweig for bringing this anniversary into spotlight.)

What this research paper really did was to question our understanding of how we think, or at least, how we think we think. The paper shed light on powerful thought patterns that likely affect us all. And when it comes to investing, these thought patterns and resulting behaviors play a far greater role in the markets than most folks realize…read more

In 2017 thus far, the only thing more dominant than the L.A. Dodgers may be large cap growth investing.

Through July, large cap growth is up over 17%, beating the S&P 500’s impressive 12% return. At the other end of the spectrum, small cap value investors have seen a minuscule 1% return, as seen in the chart below. But there’s something eerily familiar about these year-to-date results …

A SMOOTH RIDE IN Q2
But Don’t Fall Asleep At The Wheel

On May 16th, there was a Wall Street Journal column by Jason Zweig that may have gone unnoticed, if not, underappreciated. The article discusses Amazon’s 20th birthday as a publicly traded company. Since its IPO in 1997, Amazon generated a total return of nearly 49,000%, or over 36% annually for its shareholders. No doubt that a performance number of 49,000% will make anyone stop dead in their tracks, either in amazement, disbelief, or both. But the rest of the article had some far more important points that may not have sunk in for most readers.

We’ll return to this story later, but suffice is to say that the Amazon story was likely lost among the many negative stories that embodied the most recent quarter. In this issue of Portfolio Matters we’ll discuss what all these moving parts mean for investor returns and, more importantly, the future for our clients and friends…read more

Ready for the next market correction? Today’s drop rekindles questions of whether this bull market is finally over. To be sure, stocks are up over 7% in the first 4 months, extending the 8-year run from the 2009 low.

But the bull market run has resulted in some expensive prices. Regardless of whether one uses multiples relative to sales, book value, trailing earnings, or normalized earnings, stocks aren’t cheap. The Shiller P/E ratio, which compares stock prices to normalized earnings over a 10-year cycle, is at its third highest dating back to 1887. The top two instances were 1929 (before the Great Depression) and 1997 (during the Tech Bubble).

Many business owners envision a successful sale in the future. But how many have walked through a term sheet, all its nuances, with their peers in a risk-free environment?

Attendees at Day 2 of our “Selling Your Business” program can now count themselves in this camp.


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*Ranked/Named among Top, Best and Most Exclusive Advisors sources: Barron's March 2016, 2015, 2014; Advisory HQ March 2016; Financial Times June 2015; Five Star Professional November 2015, 2013, 2012,2011, 2010, 2009; Mutual Funds Magazine January 2001; NABCAP September 2010, 2011, 2013; Worth Magazine July 2002, January 2004, October 2004, October 2008; Wealth & Finance International, October 2014. Rankings and/or recognition by unaffiliated rating services and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Janiczek Wealth Management is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of Janiczek Wealth Management by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Janiczek Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly on this website will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this website serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Janiczek Wealth Management To the extent that a viewer has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Janiczek Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the website content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. If you are a Janiczek Wealth Management client, please remember to contact Janiczek Wealth Management, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. A copy of the Janiczek Wealth Management current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.

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