The risk of another retest of recent correction lows has sufficiently reduced to encourage us to go back into an overweight stock/underweight bond posture after moving into a short defensive oriented neutral position from early/mid August to early October. While our bear watch, rally watch and top watch models rarely trigger short-lived tactical stock market moves, this was the case this time.
In short, our evidence based investing discipline has encouraged us to closely watch for signs of a relatively normal correction (shallow -10% decline in equities worldwide over short 45 day (+/-) period) or signs of a more severe cyclical bear market (-20% decline over 9 months (+/-)). Enough signals have turned from bearish to neutral to bullish to compel us to shift back to the bullish equity stance we have maintained for quite some time.
All eyes are on the Fed this week.
What this means is that when the Fed and Central Banks are accommodative to growth…like they have been for a long time…we take other indicators, such as fundamental market valuation indicators, and give them a bit less weighting in our overall assessment of investment opportunities and dangers. Simply put, fighting the Fed or “tape” is typically considered foolish in the world of investing.
Our research indicates that regardless of when the Fed starts increasing rates from the current emergency level, that the increase amount and pace will be low and slow. Here’s a brief snapshot of some reasons why:
Our Investment Team is in the process of making tactical equity moves across every single portfolio we manage. This may sound like a major project to some, but it is not. The complete process start to finish, including inputting, executing and auditing trades to make certain they are completed within narrow target ranges inside each portfolio, typically runs from between 4 and 24 hours, and if push came to shove, we know we can do it – across all client accounts – in minutes.
I’ll explain the moves and rationale in a moment, but first I want to mention a few root investment management capabilities that make these important tactical adjustments possible. The fact is that my biggest critique of the way I have observed many investors and many competing investment advisers managing money is that many, in my opinion, lack the timely evidence-based research, empowerment structures and technical trading abilities to make such moves in a timely manner. Bluntly, in the game of timely tactical moves, I think they are out even before they enter the batters box!
Our latest client appreciation event, the Cirque du Soleil performance of Kurios – Cabinet of Curiosities, was a big hit. We had hundreds of clients and friends from across the country join us in the “Grand Chapiteau” (big tent) celebrating our 25-year company anniversary in style.
Why did we select “curiosity” as the theme for this quarter-century milestone celebration? It was an easy choice. Simply put, we attribute a healthy dose of curiosity as a key ingredient behind our success and the success of the hundreds of high and ultra-high net worth clients we serve.
I’ve had a lot of clients and friends recently ask me if our comprehensive “bear watch” or “rally watch” investment models have triggered any sell or buy signals. The short answer is…
- the weight of our macro, fundamental and technical evidence remains bullish,
- albeit with signs of elevated risk across global markets.
With plenty of headlines and moving economic parts to consider, I do think it’s a good time for you to review our mid-year market outlook. Click the image below to download.
In the 5-page report, our Chief Investment Officer, James Callahan, CFA does a fine job filtering through all the noise, hype and data to zero into a quality evidence-based assessment of conditions, dangers and opportunities.
As always, if you have any questions, feel free to call me at 303-721-7000.
A prominent estate planning attorney I was meeting with recently said it well:
“The middle high net worth segment ($5 million to $40 million net worth) often encounter:
A) a revolving door (of representatives) from mega-institutions that may “lower their standard” and accept them as a border-line (size) account, or
B) biased sales pitches from retail brokers and banks who are incentivized and organized to pitch investment products rather than provide comprehensive investment and wealth management services.”
We couldn’t agree more with this synopsis. As we like to say, who wants to work with an advisor who “gives them no respect” (we call it the “Rodney Dangerfield” treatment) and way too complicated and costly investment products in today’s open architecture world? Or, who wants to be the gravy train for the top sales superstars of retail brokerages and banks when “open source/free agency” investing has opened up a world of quality, lean investment vehicles less complicated, less costly and less sticky (easy to plug in and out)?
January 29, 2015.
Greenwood Village, Colorado. Janiczek® Wealth Management is celebrating its 25-year Anniversary gifting two extraordinary experiences to its clients.
First, the company acquired premium tickets for a Cirque du Soleil performance of Kurios – Cabinet of Curiosities for its clients and special guests for a 25-year anniversary experience a little later in the year. "The theme of having a high level of curiosity and exploring new possibilities in life is precisely the message we want augmenting our unique Evidence Based Investing and Strength Based Wealth Management services" said Joseph J. Janiczek, the founder and CEO of the company. "We expect clients and friends from 25 states around the country to join us in this experience and celebration."
I’m in Times Square in New York City celebrating the New Year and very recent birth of our first grandchild. 🙂
Given this is our special 25-Year Anniversary as a company, we created two "special edition" resources to help clients and friends spring board into 2015 with great focus and purpose. Just click on the download buttons below for an instant PDF copy our "Making 2015 an Extraordinary Year" and "Recommended Books, Apps and Resources" guides.