JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Behavioral Economics Takes Center Stage in Q3
I will be very impressed if the title of this latest edition of Portfolio Matters sounds familiar to anyone. It’s actually the title of the research paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky back in September of 1974 that brought the field of behavioral economics into the mainstream mindset we know today. (We credit writer Jason Zweig for bringing this anniversary into spotlight.)
What this research paper really did was to question our understanding of how we think, or at least, how we think we think. The paper shed light on powerful thought patterns that likely affect us all. And when it comes to investing, these thought patterns and resulting behaviors play a far greater role in the markets than most folks realize…read more
We’re moved in! Take a closer look at our office!
The Janiczek team couldn’t be more excited for our new space! We spent close to a year determining what we needed in our new space. On September 1, 2017 everything came together as we moved in to our brand new facility at 7001 E. Belleview Ave, Suite 600, Denver, CO 80237. We will be hosting an open house on Thursday, November 9th, from 3:30 – 6:00. We would love for you to stop by, chat with the team and get a tour of our new office. Until then, enjoy a few pictures of our new space!
Being a resident, I have experienced Denver’s hot housing market first hand. All residents can attest to the fact real estate has a short shelf life in this town. An influx of out of state buyers who regularly comes in with cash to quickly buy up our already low housing inventory. I have always wondered where this cash is coming from. Are buyers liquidating investment assets to purchase a home in Denver under assumptions of continued year over year real estate appreciation?
As I discussed in my last blog, investor participation in the stock market is at an all-time low. Does this mean investors are stock piling hordes of cash for future use? No. We know people are still investing with hopes of better returns than what is earned in their savings accounts. So, who are the recipients of these funds? According to Gallup, real estate is the current preferred driver of net worth. When looking at the chart below, I would have to say that Americans’ view of the stock market as the best long-term investment option is changing.
Over the past few years there has been a steady increase in real estate investing. Thirty-five percent of Americans now choose real estate over stock and mutual funds. Both asset classes suffered catastrophic losses during the great recession and both have now recovered to well above their pre-crash highs. But Americans now seem to have more confidence in real estate than the stock market. I hope they understand the risks associated with direct real estate investing; illiquidity, expensive to exit, high entry price… but that’s for a later discussion.
In 2017 thus far, the only thing more dominant than the L.A. Dodgers may be large cap growth investing.
Through July, large cap growth is up over 17%, beating the S&P 500’s impressive 12% return. At the other end of the spectrum, small cap value investors have seen a minuscule 1% return, as seen in the chart below. But there’s something eerily familiar about these year-to-date results …
With the U.S. markets hitting record highs, one would assume more adults would be participating in the stock market when compared to previous years. Since the last financial crisis, we have not experienced an increase of stock market participation. The equity markets continue to march forward and the participation in these gains has not. Per research published by Gallup, a little more than 52% of Americans’ currently have money invested in the stock market. As you can see in the below graph, this matches the lowest ownership rate since 1999. During the high in 2007, nearly 2 out of 3 adults had money invested in the stock market. Did big losses experienced in 2008-09 change Americans’ sense of confidence in the stock market?
The Janiczek Team raced their way through the Donor Dash!
On Sunday, July 16th, the Janiczek team completed the Donor Dash 5k at Washington Park. The Donor Dash is a 3.1 mile run/walk to honor the lives of organ and tissue donors, celebrate the lives of organ and tissue recipients and recognize those who continue to wait for a lifesaving transplant. The Donor Dash was a huge success this year, with over 4,800 individuals participating in the event. The race hit close to home, as a few team members were racing in honor of family members who were donors or recipients.
A SMOOTH RIDE IN Q2
But Don’t Fall Asleep At The Wheel
On May 16th, there was a Wall Street Journal column by Jason Zweig that may have gone unnoticed, if not, underappreciated. The article discusses Amazon’s 20th birthday as a publicly traded company. Since its IPO in 1997, Amazon generated a total return of nearly 49,000%, or over 36% annually for its shareholders. No doubt that a performance number of 49,000% will make anyone stop dead in their tracks, either in amazement, disbelief, or both. But the rest of the article had some far more important points that may not have sunk in for most readers.
We’ll return to this story later, but suffice is to say that the Amazon story was likely lost among the many negative stories that embodied the most recent quarter. In this issue of Portfolio Matters we’ll discuss what all these moving parts mean for investor returns and, more importantly, the future for our clients and friends…read more
Janiczek Wealth Management has once again been named to a top advisors list in 2017!*
Janiczek Wealth Management is pleased to announce it has been named to the 2017 edition of the Financial Times 300 Top Registered Investment Advisers. The list recognizes top independent RIA firms from across the U.S.
Great Tips to Avoid Common Cybercrime Threats
Janiczek Wealth Management hosted a cyber security seminar on June 8th to educate our clients, friends and family. Jeff Lanza, former FBI speaker was the featured speaker. As an FBI agent, Lanza investigated corruption, fraud, organized crime, cyber-crime, human trafficking and terrorism. Lanza is passionate about educating individuals on how to protect themselves from cyber-crime as well as helping organizations stay safe.
On June 14th, Kyle Kersting, CFA, Director of Investments, participated in a panel discussion to an audience of the largest family offices, registered investment advisors, private banks and wealth management firms in the Mountain States region. Kyle lead a discussion around advising the ever-changing high net worth client. More specifically, 76% of women change advisors after a transition period such as a divorce or death and how advisors can work with this group beyond just portfolio construction. Discussing how private wealth management firms ensure that wealth is preserved for future generations as a transition into the growing millennial demographic and how to tailor your wealth management approach to appeal to both demographics.