Ready for the next market correction? Today’s drop rekindles questions of whether this bull market is finally over. To be sure, stocks are up over 7% in the first 4 months, extending the 8-year run from the 2009 low.
But the bull market run has resulted in some expensive prices. Regardless of whether one uses multiples relative to sales, book value, trailing earnings, or normalized earnings, stocks aren’t cheap. The Shiller P/E ratio, which compares stock prices to normalized earnings over a 10-year cycle, is at its third highest dating back to 1887. The top two instances were 1929 (before the Great Depression) and 1997 (during the Tech Bubble).
Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders last Saturday, a publication that is examined and dissected by investors around the world. And this year’s edition underscores why.
Before its release, the S&P 500 closed at its all-time high (again), continuing its rally that began in November. In fact, in the first 38 trading days of 2016, the S&P 500 has posted a new high 11 times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 Index have printed new highs 14 and 3 times in 2016, respectively.
Even the greenest of investors is likely aware that stocks move in both directions, and that periods of upswings have historically been followed by downturns. The Holy Grail, of course, is how to invest through all the ups and downs, and Buffett offers his view:
Legacy planning goes beyond mere numbers, aligning traditional estate planning with a family’s goals and values. The process includes defining and expressing what wealth means to a family. It involves identifying the core values that bind the family, and in many cases it involves grooming children and grandchildren to be guardians of not just wealth, but also those values.
Financial advisors can provide peace of mind. But do they deliver a demonstrable, dollars-and-cents advantage to their clients?
Two studies show that the answer is yes—if the advisor is diligent in providing several key services. Let’s start with research from Morningstar, the big Chicago-based investment research firm. A 2012 Morningstar study found that advisors who use an “efficient financial planning strategy” can help clients increase their retirement assets significantly.
In my previous four posts I introduced my guiding principles of wealth management, along with the first three principles (links to one, two, and three). Today I will discuss the fourth guiding principle, which is one of the most enjoyable for me to use as a financial advisor while helping clients:
Know what is holding you back, spurring you forward, and serving you best
This kind of self awareness is essential to have the energy, confidence, and focus to support your financial plan. Wealth mastery cannot be pursued with out a degree of self-mastery and self-knowledge. You need to know what is working against you and deal with it. You need to know what you have in your favor and use it to the best possible advantage.
In my experience as a financial advisor, I have found that people often lack such self-awareness. So, I have made it one of my guiding principles to take proper time for reflection. With weaknesses especially—habits of mind that can hold you back—people often need a third party or a sympathetic ear to surface issues.
The other day I read a Bloomberg article that cited a recent survey suggesting that while the average U.S. employee calculates that he or she will retire at age 65, as a group the odds are around 50% that they will still be working at age 70. By the tone of the story, I would surmise this is less by choice and more by need.
At Janiczek Wealth Management, we are very fortunate to work with financially independent individuals and families, who have successfully put themselves in position to control their own destiny as it relates to their financial well-being. In the majority of cases, this independence did not simply happen overnight, but was the result of hard work and perseverance that eventually resulted in a major liquidity event or accumulation of wealth that changed the equation from “having to work”… to “choosing to work”. It is a very powerful edge to know that you are going to work simply because you want to, not because you have to.
We recently hosted an expert team of six highly regarded advisors to have an open discussion and brainstorming session focused on how best to serve successful families, along with the inevitable complexities and nuances of managing different aspects of their significant wealth. Among this group included specialized experts exclusively serving financially successful families, business owners, and C-level executives. The players around the table included an estate attorney, a consultative tax professional (CPA), a life insurance advisor, a high-end property and casualty insurance agent, and two comprehensive wealth management professionals.
When building an efficient portfolio, most market practitioners would agree to an allocation to bonds. This allocation reduces the overall volatility of the portfolio and adds a layer of safety. The two main components affecting fixed income returns are: 1). interest rates and 2). the credit quality of issuers. With the recent increase of interest rates and the Fed’s plan to incrementally increase rates over the next few years, we feel investments in credit, especially high yield, offers better return potential to investors.
High yield bonds tend to deliver the potential to improve a portfolio’s overall risk/return given the historically low correlation with other core asset classes. Due to their location on the credit spectrum, high yield bonds offer enhanced yields compared to high quality bonds and can potentially increase the overall yield of a portfolio significantly. Although this has not been the case as of late, historically speaking, high yield bonds have provided better downside protection than equities while delivering equity like returns with significantly less volatility and drawdowns.
“When it comes to your wealth, you are the newly appointed CEO of My Wealth, Inc.”
When working with business owners who have experienced a liquidity event, we often see the most success when these high net worth individuals manage their wealth the way they managed their business. Let me explain why.
Take a deep breath… YOU have the golden ticket! Your thoughts immediately jump towards all your wildest dreams, and reality starts to kick in that money is no longer a hurdle to life experiences or the worldly goods you desire. If you can dream it up, you can do it! With such a substantial jackpot, it’s hard to fathom that someone could possibly blow through this type of fortune. Without a clear and concise plan, however… anything is possible!
So how do you protect yourself from becoming associated with the unwanted statistic that 70% of lottery winners eventually end up broke?