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Ready for the next market correction? Today’s drop rekindles questions of whether this bull market is finally over. To be sure, stocks are up over 7% in the first 4 months, extending the 8-year run from the 2009 low.

But the bull market run has resulted in some expensive prices. Regardless of whether one uses multiples relative to sales, book value, trailing earnings, or normalized earnings, stocks aren’t cheap. The Shiller P/E ratio, which compares stock prices to normalized earnings over a 10-year cycle, is at its third highest dating back to 1887. The top two instances were 1929 (before the Great Depression) and 1997 (during the Tech Bubble).

What are tactical adjustments? In their 1986 asset allocation research, Brinson, Beebower, & Hood defined tactical asset allocation as:

“…strategically altering the investment mix weights away from normal in an attempt to capture excess returns from short-term fluctuations in asset class prices (market timing);”

When it comes to tactical asset allocation, a growing body of evidence shows investors who make tactical moves in their portfolios do best when both technical analysis and fundamental analysis align.

callahan-event-09-20-16On September 20th, our Chief Investment Officer, Jim Callahan, spoke on a panel in front of roughly 100 attendees at the Denver Athletic Club. Along with investment executives from four other wealth management firms, Jim was invited to discuss the topic of “Advanced Asset Allocation”.

Asset Allocation

No single input is more important to a portfolio’s success than asset allocation, or determining how much to allocate to various asset classes.

In 1986, authors Gary Brinson, Gilbert Beebower, and Randolph Hood conducted an in-depth study of the various sources of investment returns. Specifically, they analyzed quarterly returns from 1974-1983 for the 91 largest pension funds, and determined that 93.6% of the returns generated were a result of asset allocation.

In a follow-on study in 1991, the authors concluded that 91% of portfolio returns are determined by asset allocation.

Financial advisors can provide peace of mind. But do they deliver a demonstrable, dollars-and-cents advantage to their clients?

a-leaders-disciplineTwo studies show that the answer is yes—if the advisor is diligent in providing several key services. Let’s start with research from Morningstar, the big Chicago-based investment research firm. A 2012 Morningstar study found that advisors who use an “efficient financial planning strategy” can help clients increase their retirement assets significantly.

By making better decisions in five areas, the study found, advisors can help their clients earn an extra 1.82% a year—or about 30% more for their retirement.


*Ranked/Named among Top, Best and Most Exclusive Advisors sources: Barron's March 2016, 2015, 2014; Advisory HQ March 2016; Financial Times June 2015; Five Star Professional November 2015, 2013, 2012,2011, 2010, 2009; Mutual Funds Magazine January 2001; NABCAP September 2010, 2011, 2013; Worth Magazine July 2002, January 2004, October 2004, October 2008; Wealth & Finance International, October 2014. Rankings and/or recognition by unaffiliated rating services and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Janiczek & Company, Ltd. is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of Janiczek & Company, Ltd. by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser.

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