Is The Market Getting Ahead of Itself?
I recently attended an event at which General George W. Casey spoke to a crowd of emerging business, civic, and non-profit leaders. General Casey served as U.S. Army Chief of Staff and was Commanding General of the Multi-National Force in Iraq from 2004 through 2007. He described his experiences in the Middle East, and his words offered some key truths for us all.
In his remarks, he referenced the “vuca” world in which we live: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. He then stated how important relationships are to the success of any objective in such a world, in his case, peace in Iraq.
The turmoil in the energy sector was widely publicized since the historic decline of prices starting mid-2014. This has largely been due to a glut of oil in the market with relatively flat demand.
As a result, the energy sector was plagued with volatility and decreasing prices as investors fled for safety.
This negative sentiment has spilled over into what should be an uncorrelated segment of the energy industry: mid-stream providers. Think of mid-stream as an infrastructure of toll roads that transport and store units of energy, not just oil. As Jim Callahan discussed in his latest edition of Portfolio Matters, the U.S. pipelines currently transport 70% natural gas and 30% oil. The demand globally for oil has decreased the volume of oil flowing through pipelines, but natural gas production is growing. The Energy Information Administration, estimates that natural gas consumption will increase by 60% on a global basis by 2040. The U.S. is the largest producer and exporter of natural gas and estimates point towards an increase in volume of 9% in 2016. While oil gets all the press, we remind our clients that its natural gas that is more important to the U.S. mid-stream MLPs, and because of this, we are very comfortable with our mid-stream focused investment thesis.