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Long-term strategies may challenge investors to stay focused. The fight against short-term thinking is getting harder as we accomplish so many things with increasing ease and speed.

There is more computing power in an iPhone than what NASA had during the first landing on the moon. Remember when Netflix mailed DVDs to your home? Now we can stream just about anything to our smartphones. And what would you have said ten years ago if I had told you the President of the United States’ main communication tool in 2018 would be Twitter?

But speed doesn’t change everything.

One asset class has rebounded to new all-time highs — U.S. small cap stocks.
Comparison of S&P 500, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets and Int'l Developed Indices

After a bullish 2017 and hopes of a continued global equity melt up, 2018 has instead reintroduced market volatility. Despite global market volatility, U.S. small cap stocks have rebounded to new all-time highs.

Factors influencing the success of U.S. small cap stocks

So what factors has caused this success versus larger capitalization stocks?

I’m not sure Yogi Berra is big source of investment knowledge for most investors. But, that doesn’t mean his words of wisdom, “déjà vu all over again,” don’t apply.

Today’s Wall Street Journal included an article titled, “Value Investors Face Existential Crisis After Long Market Rally.” It discussed the “rut” that value investing has experienced since 2009.  No arguments there. Value stocks are down about 1% year-to-date while growth stocks are up nearly 8%.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index, which holds many of the favorite tech names among growth investors, is at its all-time high.

A Familiar Scenario

But as I sipped my morning coffee and read further, I didn’t ask myself how we should change our current value approach (for the portion of our portfolios dedicated to value investing) to match the current environment.  Instead, I found myself thinking about earlier in my career, the late 1990s.  Tech ruled the day from 1995 through 1999, and value investors lagged back then too.

What separates the ordinary from the extraordinary? I believe consistently doing the best with what you have with daily choices and actions. In a word: habits!

When you use the power of choice and habit, outside forces play a secondary role. It doesn’t matter how educated you are, what occupation you choose, how much you earn or who you know. What does matter is what you do with what you have today.

Habits Make the Difference

For instance, take Gladys Holm who, as a secretary, earned no more than $15,000 a year throughout her life. Yet she left $18 million dollars to a hospital for heart disease research when she passed away! Gladys had the opportunity to invest in her employers’ stock over her career and she did. She also had the opportunity to invest in other stocks (like all of us do) and she did. She had the opportunity to participate in her employer’s stock option plan and did. Notice the trend… she had many opportunities and took advantage of each one to the degree she could with her modest salary. She became known for driving her fire-engine red Cadillac and delivering teddy bears to children at a local hospital in her Chicago neighborhood.

While the S&P 500 remained near its all-time high, the recent massive selloff in the technology sector went mostly unnoticed. But for investors who follow the so-called “FANG” stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) the hit was painful: About $60 billion in value was wiped out in just one afternoon, representing the largest selloff in nearly 2 years.

The wipeout was a function of just how big these companies have become and the position they are in with new tax reform looming. Tech companies are expected to receive little benefit given its already-low average tax rate of 18.5% (below the 20% proposed rate).

This has caused investors to rotate out of the tech stocks and into the financial services sector, which stands to benefit more from a corporate tax rate that would drop from the current 35% to 20%.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 was relatively unaffected while this rotation into financials and out of tech ensued.  The index’s volatility actually remained low, as did correlations among the S&P 500’s member stocks.

In other words, the diversity offered by the S&P 500 Index allowed for the index too remain relatively unscathed by the trading within the tech and financial sectors, a key reminder to investors that having proper exposure across the markets continues to be important with the S&P 500 near its all-time high.

 

Does intelligence equate with investment management success?

Intelligence does not necessarily lead to expertise in every area- especially when it comes to investing.

What might it take to succeed in investing? Intelligence alone? You have to be intelligent to get into Mensa. They only accept applicants with IQs that place them in the top 2 percent of the population. One might expect that if Mensa members formed an investment club, their returns would exceed market averages, or at least match them. In actuality, between 1986 and 2001, while the S&P 500 was returning a robust 15.3% annually, the Mensa Investment Club had average returns of 2.5% per year.

How did these geniuses and near geniuses manage such poor results in such a strong market? Their basic problem was a lack of discipline. Instead of using their intellects to determine a sound investment approach and sticking with it, they got sidetracked into exploring trendy new tools and theories of how to predict market trends. When one strategy didn’t work they tried another. They made frequent trades, thus increasing their transaction costs. In short, they provided a perfect example of Warren Buffett’s comment: “Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ.” Common sense and discipline will beat erratic genius every time.

Joseph-mediumThe financial markets are now closed for the year and with all of the theatrics the verdict is in. Those investors with the following five characteristics prevail over those who fall victim to a host of mistakes and unsuccessful approaches:

  1. Investing from a superior position of financial strength.
  2. Being well prepared for a range of possible outcomes.
  3. Having an investment philosophy and approach you can confidently stick with and win with through thick and thin.
  4. Tuning out the noise, taming the emotion and focusing on what you can control.
  5. Investing for long-term success and, in the process, avoiding anxiety-toxic predictions, moves, comparisons, concentrations and traps.

trumpNearly eight weeks after his election, emotions about President-elect Donald Trump continue to run high.

There’s no doubt that Trump was a divisive candidate, and he is already saying and doing things that have pleased some and discouraged others. But as investors contemplate the next four years under this president, they should pay attention to facts and numbers and be on guard against emotional decision-making.

It’s common for investors to overestimate the impact that Presidential election results have on investment markets. Prior to the election, many commentators predicted a market crash in the event of a Donald Trump victory. That didn’t happen, of course; to the contrary, the market has risen. That’s an example of the strength and adaptability of the markets: They have a long history of digesting jarring and unforeseen events, and then moving forward.

The challenge of performance measurement

People examining economic statistic. Financial examiner. Vector illustration.

When was the last time you examined your investments?

Periodic reviews of an investor’s portfolio helps ascertain whether the investment process is working, but more importantly, whether it’s on the right course for the individual investor.

The Beardstown Ladies was a 12-woman investment club that gathered monthly and managed their own stock portfolio. They became celebrities in the mid-1990s when news of their track record went viral: since their 1983 inception, The Beardstown Ladies claimed their portfolio had returned 23.4% versus the S&P 500’s 14.9% return. But in 1998, an audited performance record was released showing the club’s actual returns were actually 9.1% per year. 

This example illustrates the fact that most investors simply don’t have proper performance data to assess their investments.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump won the Republican nomination for President. This news likely caused much elation, disgust, and nothing in between.

But among those who call themselves Republicans, this marks quite a shift in their thinking from last year. In an April 2015 poll of registered Republican voters, Jeb Bush led Marco Rubio while Donald Trump … wasn’t even on the list!

No-Clear-Leader-in-the-GOP-Field Blog 07.20


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*Ranked/Named among Top, Best and Most Exclusive Advisors sources: Barron's March 2016, 2015, 2014; Advisory HQ March 2016; Financial Times June 2015; Five Star Professional November 2015, 2013, 2012,2011, 2010, 2009; Mutual Funds Magazine January 2001; NABCAP September 2010, 2011, 2013; Worth Magazine July 2002, January 2004, October 2004, October 2008; Wealth & Finance International, October 2014. Rankings and/or recognition by unaffiliated rating services and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Janiczek Wealth Management is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of Janiczek Wealth Management by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Janiczek Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly on this website will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this website serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Janiczek Wealth Management To the extent that a viewer has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Janiczek Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the website content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. If you are a Janiczek Wealth Management client, please remember to contact Janiczek Wealth Management, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. A copy of the Janiczek Wealth Management current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.

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