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Thumbnail PM 041217Is The Market Getting Ahead of Itself?

I recently attended an event at which General George W. Casey spoke to a crowd of emerging business, civic, and non-profit leaders. General Casey served as U.S. Army Chief of Staff and was Commanding General of the Multi-National Force in Iraq from 2004 through 2007. He described his experiences in the Middle East, and his words offered some key truths for us all.

In his remarks, he referenced the “vuca” world in which we live: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. He then stated how important relationships are to the success of any objective in such a world, in his case, peace in Iraq.

The challenge of performance measurement

People examining economic statistic. Financial examiner. Vector illustration.

When was the last time you examined your investments?

Periodic reviews of an investor’s portfolio helps ascertain whether the investment process is working, but more importantly, whether it’s on the right course for the individual investor.

The Beardstown Ladies was a 12-woman investment club that gathered monthly and managed their own stock portfolio. They became celebrities in the mid-1990s when news of their track record went viral: since their 1983 inception, The Beardstown Ladies claimed their portfolio had returned 23.4% versus the S&P 500’s 14.9% return. But in 1998, an audited performance record was released showing the club’s actual returns were actually 9.1% per year. 

This example illustrates the fact that most investors simply don’t have proper performance data to assess their investments.

The role of tax strategies in trading and managing investment portfolios

Certain tax strategies can add a meaningful boost to portfolio performance because taxes are an explicit cost to any portfolio and, therefore, a detractor from performance. Although tax situations are unique to each individual, any strategy that limits or delays the tax bill and retains more after-tax return for investors will face little argument.

“Avoidance of taxes is not a criminal offense. Any attempt to reduce, avoid, minimize, or alleviate taxes by legitimate means is permissible. The distinction between evasion and avoidance is fine yet definite. One who avoids tax does not conceal or misrepresent. He shapes events to reduce or eliminate tax liability and upon the happening of the events, makes a complete disclosure. Evasion, on the other hand, involves deceit, subterfuge, camouflage, concealment, some attempt to color or obscure events, or making things seem other than what they are.”— Internal Revenue Manual Code 9.1.3.3.2.1 (05-15-2008) 26 USC §7201 – Avoidance Distinguished from Evasion

Assuming all investors pay taxes either now or later, the chart below illustrates the benefit of delaying taxes. We assume a portfolio of 60% stocks, 40% bonds that is rebalanced every year. The solid line depicts the growth of the 100% taxable portfolio, while the dotted line shows portfolio growth in a 100% tax-deferred portfolio. Of course, the taxman arrives eventually, so we show the hit (a worst-case all-at-once tax consequence) to the tax-deferred line when withdrawing at ordinary income tax rates.

“What goes best with a cup of coffee? Another cup.”

-Henry Rollins

Coffee beans 07.14Thus far, 2016 has been an interesting year for money managers. We have seen the recent market rally mask some of the greatest market volatility experienced in five years. If you think back to the beginning of the year, you’ll remember the worst start to the calendar year ever for the S&P 500. As recession fears subsided, stocks rebounded and we closed at a new record high on the S&P 500 yesterday. We have also seen a reversal in commodity prices.

From a total return standpoint, the S&P GSCI, the commodity index, sits atop of its equity counterparts. The increase in commodity prices have helped subdue the concerns of a global recession, but also comes with drawbacks. The clear drawback is the price to fill your car. We have seen prices at the pump increase over the year as oil prices have risen and now hover around $50 per barrel. Another downside, one not as publicized as other commodity prices, is the price of coffee.

Janet Yellen Federal Reserve ChairFed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments last week suggested that interest rates may be headed higher as early as next week.  This caught the market by surprise, given the subpar economic growth and low inflationary environment.  But we see a few reasons why higher inflation and higher interest rates shouldn’t be such a surprise after all.

Scales-of-Justice - Janiczek

 

I’ve had a lot of clients and friends recently ask me if our comprehensive “bear watch” or “rally watch” investment models have triggered any sell or buy signals. The short answer is…

  • the weight of our macro, fundamental and technical evidence remains bullish,
  • albeit with signs of elevated risk across global markets.

With plenty of headlines and moving economic parts to consider, I do think it’s a good time for you to review our mid-year market outlook. Click the image below to download.

Portfolio Matters

In the 5-page report, our Chief Investment Officer, James Callahan, CFA does a fine job filtering through all the noise, hype and data to zero into a quality evidence-based assessment of conditions, dangers and opportunities.

As always, if you have any questions, feel free to call me at 303-721-7000.

Check out our Q3 edition of Portfolio Matters.

When it comes to the media, we’ve often said there’s been a big swing from quality to quantity.  However, as our Founder and CEO, Joseph Janiczek, likes to remind our clients, there is a very big difference between “news” and “noise”.  Our latest edition of Portfolio Matters cuts right through the noise to provide you an objective view of the markets.

Download Now

Click the following for your copy:

We just published our Q2 edition of Portfolio Matters.

In this edition of Portfolio Matters we offer some commentary and analysis on where investors should be getting defensive, and where the recent market activity could present opportunities.   We think you will find our publication timely and insightful.

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Click the following for your copy:

Q1 Edition of Portfolio Matters

15 Apr 2014 By There are no tags

Check out our Q1 publication of Portfolio Matters.

The report will give you an example of the sophisticated research other high net worth and ultra-high net worth investors have supporting their investment decisions. The document contains highly refined and filtered market intelligence about dangers to avoid and opportunities to capture when designing your portfolio.

Download Now

Click the following for your copy:


*Ranked/Named among Top, Best and Most Exclusive Advisors sources: Barron's March 2016, 2015, 2014; Advisory HQ March 2016; Financial Times June 2015; Five Star Professional November 2015, 2013, 2012,2011, 2010, 2009; Mutual Funds Magazine January 2001; NABCAP September 2010, 2011, 2013; Worth Magazine July 2002, January 2004, October 2004, October 2008; Wealth & Finance International, October 2014. Rankings and/or recognition by unaffiliated rating services and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Janiczek Wealth Management is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of Janiczek Wealth Management by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Janiczek Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly on this website will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this website serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Janiczek Wealth Management To the extent that a viewer has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Janiczek Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the website content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. If you are a Janiczek Wealth Management client, please remember to contact Janiczek Wealth Management, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. A copy of the Janiczek Wealth Management current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.

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