1. The ability for continued monetary stimulus and a hopeful trade resolution points to a global economic recovery, not recession, in 2020.
2. Aggressive global central bank rate cuts will likely continue to keep bond yields lower.
3. Fed’s dovish monetary policy should be short lived with one more rate cut expected this year followed by a justified firmer stance moving forward.
1. Global equities posted positive performance for the quarter despite a difficult May with the S&P 500 recording best June since 1955.
2. Collapse of 10 year treasuries contributed to a strong quarter for bonds.
3. Though expansion is long in the tooth, current economic indicators support continued growth.
1. Domestic equities’ performance in Q1 was the best in nearly 10 years.
2. Favorable interest rates plus a potential China trade resolution have driven much of this year’s equity rally.
3. The Fed’s pivot to a more dovish monetary policy drove U.S. bonds higher.
If you read Barron’s Magazine this week, you will see Joseph J. Janiczek of Janiczek Wealth Management in its 2019 listing of top advisors in the nation.
This represents the sixth year in a row Janiczek has made this prestigious list, adding to a long tradition of making many top investment and wealth management lists and/or rankings going all the way back to 2001.
This latest award adds to top advisor lists published in or by:
- The Wall Street Journal
- Financial Times
- Worth Magazine
- Mutual Funds Magazine
Janiczek Wealth Management is pleased to announce that it has once again been named to a Top and Best Financial Advisors in Denver, Colorado list–this time by Expertise.com. This adds to Janiczek’s long history of accolades including lists published in Barron’s, Wall Street Journal, Worth magazine, Mutual Funds magazine and others.*
To begin a conversation with Janiczek Wealth Management, to see if and how it makes sense to engage them for investment and wealth management services, call its Denver headquarters at 303-721-7000.
The firm specializes in serving high net worth investors (individuals with investment portfolios of $1.5- to $20-million) and ultra-high net worth investors (individuals with investment portfolios of $20-million and above).
Evaluate the Forest, not each Tree
Warren Buffett has a way of communicating financial principles in ways that hit home, and this year’s annual letter to shareholders is no exception. He’s managed Berkshire Hathaway since 1965, growing the company into a $500 billion conglomerate that owns and operates 66 different businesses generating $225 billion in sales.
- The question for stocks in 2019 isn’t whether earnings will slow, it’s by how much.
- During such slowdowns, the evidence shows that not all stocks are equal.
- Tilting towards more defensive stocks during earnings slowdowns can be beneficial to one’s portfolio.
Stock market volatility recently returned to normal levels after a few years of abnormally low volatility. It’s a good time to remind ourselves how to take advantage of this very natural dynamic of investing rather than be deceived by it.
Here are five important reminders:
1. Volatility is your friend.
The very reason equity markets offer the possibility of higher returns than saving or investment vehicles with less perceived risk, such as U.S. Treasury Bonds or Certificates of Deposits (CDs), is the higher risk and greater volatility associated with such holdings.
This is called the risk premium, something investors as a whole build into liquid, open, transparent financial markets every business day of the year around the world.
For instance, the S&P 500, over the last 90 years returned about 10% per year.* However, there were very few individual years it actually returned that amount. The reality is that in 40 of the 90 years, the index was up more than 20% or down more than 20%.
So, remember, the premium (return over less risky assets) you are seeking to receive in risk assets is precisely for accepting the bumpy ride associated with the investment vehicle.
So long as you genuinely are a long-term investor who can ride out the bumps to the level you have accepted, history demonstrates you can be fine. Exhibit 1 illustrates the long-term historic view of what broad asset classes look like: **
1. We find little evidence of excess in the economy that usually results in a recession, and this gives us reason to think the next recession is still some time away.
2. The investment markets are re-pricing for a slowdown in economic growth, but absent a recession, the bull market is likely to resume.
3. Non-U.S. stocks and value stocks offer some attractive opportunities given their respective cycles.
January High-5 from Janiczek
A monthly recap of articles designed to inform and inspire on a variety of topics related to investing and wealth management.
In this edition:
- 2019 Outlook / 2018 Top Takeaways and Market Review
- Investing in Volatile Markets
- Wealth & Health in 2019
- More Freedom in 2019
- All for One, One for All