Chart of the Month
Great Disparity in S&P 500 Performance & Valuation Metrics – Top 5 S&P 500 Stocks vs the other 495
- U.S. equity indexes have posted their best quarterly gains in some time, after coming off of one of their worst quarters – but S&P 500 returns are “distorted” by record returns in the tech sector
- The five largest stocks in the S&P 500 (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB) all of which are high flying tech stocks make up 23% of the entire index
- S&P 500 has returned -1.7% for the year through 7/7, but if you exclude the above 5 stocks (which distort index performance), the remaining stocks YTD return in -7.3%
- There is also a pronounced disparity in valuations – the largest 5 stocks are trading at 35 times earnings (looks eerily like tech bubble valuations) while the remaining trade at 19.5x
- We are utilizing this insight as we build and manage portfolios. We highly recommend all investors carefully tread this rather large anomaly
Overview of Select Portfolio Management Moves Made
- As stated in prior commentaries, we have been acting to de-risk portfolios from overweight equity and more aggressive equity or equity-like positions for the last 2-years plus. Simply put, we knew the bull market that began in March of 2009 (11+ years ago) was long in the tooth and we simply wanted more portfolio downside protection in the event of a correction.
- All-weather holdings and allocations we built well before and held onto throughout the pandemic have been Investment Grade bonds, Investment Grade Municipal Bonds, S&P 500 Stocks and Wide Moat, Heavy Dividend Paying Stocks. Not all dividend payers are created equal and we believe focusing high quality businesses will be additive to our portfolios in a slow growth environment.
- As the pandemic crisis unfolded, we acted to reduce small cap stock exposure (buying mid cap stocks with proceeds) and eliminate high yield bonds (increasing cash reserves in the process). This action was designed to own stronger balance sheet assets during the most uncertain time period of the pandemic crisis.
- While we liked owning index funds in many categories during the robust bull market run since 2009, we acted decisively to sell several index holdings and add active managers with high “active share” characteristics, “boots on the ground” and/or “factors” we like. Simply put, we believe this is a time to be more active and recent active versus index statistics are in support of this pivot.
- We are extremely excited about each of the new active holdings within portfolios and we think clients will be pleased with this exceptional line up (and the performance of these holdings year-to-date). Within this updated mix includes a Momentum Factor ETF, a Relative Profitability Factor fund, a Mid Cap Low Volatility ETF, an Emerging Market fund and a new Developed Market International fund.
- Call us at 303-721-7000 if you have any questions about these moves. We have solid due diligence and rationale behind each
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Barron’s Top Advisors: Rankings are based on data provided by advisors. Included factors were assets under management, regulatory record, revenue produced for the firm, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component.
Top Financial Advisors/Financial Times: Rankings are based on data provided by investment firms. Included factors were assets under management, asset retention, years of experience, FINRA compliance record. Investment performance is not an explicit component.
Advisory HQ: Rankings are based on data provided by investment firms. Included factors were fiduciary duty, independence, transparency, level of customized service, history of innovation, fee structure, quality of services provided, team excellence and wealth of experience.
Mutual Funds Magazine: Rankings are based on data provided by investment firms. Included factors were nomination by peers, higher education, professional accreditations, SEC and state registrations, fee structure, assets under management, minimum client portfolio, years of experience and SEC filings. Investment performance is not an explicit component.
Worth Magazine: Rankings are based on data provided by investment firms. Included factors were professional designation and background, client retention rates, average portfolio returns, fee structures and sample financial plans were submitted for review. Investment performance is not an explicit component.
Sources: Barron’s March 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014; Financial Times June 2017, 2015; AdvisoryHQ March 2018, 2017, 2016; Mutual Funds magazine January 2001; Worth magazine July 2002, January 2004, October 2004, October 2008. TM & Copyright Janiczek Wealth Management. All rights reserved. Strength Based Wealth Management® 35 Essential Strengths®, The Stages of Financial Freedom®, Wealth Optimization Plan™, Wealth Optimization Dashboard™, Lifestyle Protection Analysis™, Flourish! Activators™ and Flourish! Based Retirement Planning™ are all trademarks of Wealth with Ease, LLC. For details, call 303-721-7000.