Blog Archive

Home
  ›  
Investing
You are here:

Being a resident, I have experienced Denver’s hot housing market first hand. All residents can attest to the fact real estate has a short shelf life in this town. An influx of out of state buyers who regularly comes in with cash to quickly buy up our already low housing inventory. I have always wondered where this cash is coming from. Are buyers liquidating investment assets to purchase a home in Denver under assumptions of continued year over year real estate appreciation?

As I discussed in my last blog, investor participation in the stock market is at an all-time low. Does this mean investors are stock piling hordes of cash for future use? No. We know people are still investing with hopes of better returns than what is earned in their savings accounts. So, who are the recipients of these funds? According to Gallup, real estate is the current preferred driver of net worth. When looking at the chart below, I would have to say that Americans’ view of the stock market as the best long-term investment option is changing.

Over the past few years there has been a steady increase in real estate investing. Thirty-five percent of Americans now choose real estate over stock and mutual funds. Both asset classes suffered catastrophic losses during the great recession and both have now recovered to well above their pre-crash highs. But Americans now seem to have more confidence in real estate than the stock market. I hope they understand the risks associated with direct real estate investing; illiquidity, expensive to exit, high entry price… but that’s for a later discussion.

In 2017 thus far, the only thing more dominant than the L.A. Dodgers may be large cap growth investing.

Through July, large cap growth is up over 17%, beating the S&P 500’s impressive 12% return. At the other end of the spectrum, small cap value investors have seen a minuscule 1% return, as seen in the chart below. But there’s something eerily familiar about these year-to-date results …

With the U.S. markets hitting record highs, one would assume more adults would be participating in the stock market when compared to previous years. Since the last financial crisis, we have not experienced an increase of stock market participation. The equity markets continue to march forward and the participation in these gains has not. Per research published by Gallup, a little more than 52% of Americans’ currently have money invested in the stock market. As you can see in the below graph, this matches the lowest ownership rate since 1999. During the high in 2007, nearly 2 out of 3 adults had money invested in the stock market. Did big losses experienced in 2008-09 change Americans’ sense of confidence in the stock market?

Ready for the next market correction? Today’s drop rekindles questions of whether this bull market is finally over. To be sure, stocks are up over 7% in the first 4 months, extending the 8-year run from the 2009 low.

But the bull market run has resulted in some expensive prices. Regardless of whether one uses multiples relative to sales, book value, trailing earnings, or normalized earnings, stocks aren’t cheap. The Shiller P/E ratio, which compares stock prices to normalized earnings over a 10-year cycle, is at its third highest dating back to 1887. The top two instances were 1929 (before the Great Depression) and 1997 (during the Tech Bubble).

Passive indexing has long been popular among the smaller investors. But wealthy investors often pursue more active strategies, either with active managers or on their own. After all, they didn’t accumulate their wealth by sitting back and doing what everyone else does, right?

But the evidence against active management is strong, with the most managers failing to beat the index over time. So why do wealthy investors tend to shun a passive approach to managing their money?

JC Blog 032217

It’s a foregone conclusion in the markets that the Federal Reserve will raise short term interest rates on Wednesday. But more importantly, investors will be looking for hints for future rate increases.

Why is this so important? The consensus view is for 2-3 Fed increases this year, but anchoring into this expectation comes with risks. For example, in 1994 the Fed surprised investors by increasing rates 6 times, resulting in a 3% loss for bonds that year. Of course, bonds recovered in following years, thanks largely to the long-term trend of falling interest rates since 1981.

fed funds futures pricing

warren blogBerkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders last Saturday, a publication that is examined and dissected by investors around the world. And this year’s edition underscores why.

Before its release, the S&P 500 closed at its all-time high (again), continuing its rally that began in November. In fact, in the first 38 trading days of 2016, the S&P 500 has posted a new high 11 times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 Index have printed new highs 14 and 3 times in 2016, respectively.

Even the greenest of investors is likely aware that stocks move in both directions, and that periods of upswings have historically been followed by downturns. The Holy Grail, of course, is how to invest through all the ups and downs, and Buffett offers his view:

Joseph-mediumThe financial markets are now closed for the year and with all of the theatrics the verdict is in. Those investors with the following five characteristics prevail over those who fall victim to a host of mistakes and unsuccessful approaches:

  1. Investing from a superior position of financial strength.
  2. Being well prepared for a range of possible outcomes.
  3. Having an investment philosophy and approach you can confidently stick with and win with through thick and thin.
  4. Tuning out the noise, taming the emotion and focusing on what you can control.
  5. Investing for long-term success and, in the process, avoiding anxiety-toxic predictions, moves, comparisons, concentrations and traps.

trumpNearly eight weeks after his election, emotions about President-elect Donald Trump continue to run high.

There’s no doubt that Trump was a divisive candidate, and he is already saying and doing things that have pleased some and discouraged others. But as investors contemplate the next four years under this president, they should pay attention to facts and numbers and be on guard against emotional decision-making.

It’s common for investors to overestimate the impact that Presidential election results have on investment markets. Prior to the election, many commentators predicted a market crash in the event of a Donald Trump victory. That didn’t happen, of course; to the contrary, the market has risen. That’s an example of the strength and adaptability of the markets: They have a long history of digesting jarring and unforeseen events, and then moving forward.

The challenge of performance measurement

People examining economic statistic. Financial examiner. Vector illustration.

When was the last time you examined your investments?

Periodic reviews of an investor’s portfolio helps ascertain whether the investment process is working, but more importantly, whether it’s on the right course for the individual investor.

The Beardstown Ladies was a 12-woman investment club that gathered monthly and managed their own stock portfolio. They became celebrities in the mid-1990s when news of their track record went viral: since their 1983 inception, The Beardstown Ladies claimed their portfolio had returned 23.4% versus the S&P 500’s 14.9% return. But in 1998, an audited performance record was released showing the club’s actual returns were actually 9.1% per year. 

This example illustrates the fact that most investors simply don’t have proper performance data to assess their investments.


1 2 3 4 7
*Ranked/Named among Top, Best and Most Exclusive Advisors sources: Barron's March 2016, 2015, 2014; Advisory HQ March 2016; Financial Times June 2015; Five Star Professional November 2015, 2013, 2012,2011, 2010, 2009; Mutual Funds Magazine January 2001; NABCAP September 2010, 2011, 2013; Worth Magazine July 2002, January 2004, October 2004, October 2008; Wealth & Finance International, October 2014. Rankings and/or recognition by unaffiliated rating services and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Janiczek Wealth Management is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of Janiczek Wealth Management by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Janiczek Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly on this website will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this website serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Janiczek Wealth Management To the extent that a viewer has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Janiczek Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the website content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. If you are a Janiczek Wealth Management client, please remember to contact Janiczek Wealth Management, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. A copy of the Janiczek Wealth Management current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.

TM & Copyright 2017, Janiczek Wealth Management. All rights reserved.